Draft Exam Review: Round 1

The NFL draft is complete and so are the bulk of the signings of undrafted free agents. I will be analyzing one pick a day this week plus my favorite undrafted free agents to make the roster or practice squad. Keep Pounding!

Round 1, Pick 25: OLB Shaq Thompson, University of Washington

I have to admit: initially, I was not overly excited about this pick. I understood the rationale behind it, in that if the value was not present at offensive tackle, the Panthers should not have hesitated to take the best player available. To that point I do not think that there was a tackle worth the #25 pick in Carolina's scheme, which emphasizes mobility to protect Cam and power in the running game. However, I was a huge fan of Breshad Perriman out of UCF, as was Baltimore, apparently, who selected the big wide receiver with the very next pick. There is good news, though. Having taken a few days to think about it and watch more tape, I am convinced that Thompson will end up being the perfect pick for the Panthers given who was available. And here is why:

The Panthers have had a very good defense the past few years. Very good, but not elite. When I think of the elite defenses of the 2000s, I think of the Steelers, the Ravens, the Seahawks, and the 49ers in various years. Carolina is in a tier below them for one painfully obvious reason: a lack of a playmaker. The Panthers boast an above-average defensive line, especially on the interior. They have a great linebacker duo who fly sideline-to-sideline and are excellent tacklers. The defensive backfield is young but was vastly improved towards the end of last season, with cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bene' Benwikere stepping up in conjunction with free safety Tre' Boston's insertion into the lineup. None of these levels of the defense boasts a player whose primary role is to wreak havoc and force turnovers.

Shaq Thompson can be that player. Watching his highlight video above and a few videos on DraftBreakdown.com, the main theme I kept seeing was how Thompson has a knack for getting his hands on the ball, be it through forcing fumbles, scooping loose balls, or making interceptions. More than that, Thompson has a nose for the end zone once he latches on to the ball, which speaks to why he played running back for the Huskies at times. He also does well in coverage, which is why I can see him fulfilling a role similar to Troy Polumalu or Kam Chancellor as a tight end-neutralizing, blitzing nightmare for opposing offensive coordinators. Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott will be able to line Thompson up all over the formation to confuse and distract offensive linemen. He is the piece Carolina needed to transform into an elite defense. I strongly expect the Panthers to have a top three defense in yards allowed, points allowed, and turnovers created, provided good health.

My grade: 86/100

I do not know that Thompson will be playing a high percentage of plays early on in the season, but I expect him to make a big impact over the second half of the season. I can see him being a part of some sub-packages and special teams at first. As he gets more comfortable with the nuances of NFL defensive schemes, I think Thompson will prove a lot of draft analysts wrong. Ron Rivera and the Panthers have a plan for this athletic playmaker, the success of which will determine how well the first round went.

Projection: 16 games, 60 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions, 1 defensive touchdown

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Draft Study Guide: Panthers Mock 6.0

I am stepping in, guys! This mock draft is what I would do if I truly was the GM of the Carolina Panthers. The picks I make are not projections of what Dave Gettleman actually will do this time around, but with the draft less than five days away, I wanted to say how I really feel about the 2015 NFL Draft.

Round 1, Pick 25: WR Breshad Perriman, University of Central Florida

I think it is probably well-established at this point that I want Perriman for the Panthers. While I am hesitant to take him this early given how rough he is around the edges, I cannot pass up on the opportunity to add such a potentially dynamic pass-catcher to the wide receivers stables in Carolina. Perriman has game-breaking ability with his frame, speed, and catch radius. His route running and concentration must improve for him to become a star in the NFL, but as a third target after Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, Perriman will have time to mature and blossom under the tutelage of Ricky Proehl. I think that Perriman is not overly dissimilar to fellow UCF alumnus Brandon Marshall, who needed a year of seasoning in the NFL before exploding onto the scene in 2007. I do not think Perriman will ever receive the targets that Marshall has (averaging almost 158 receptions per season outside of his rookie year), but he has similar play making ability and will be an asset to the Panthers franchise.

Round 2, Pick 57: CB Eric Rowe, University of Utah

Rowe is another guy I was high on drafting later on before his combine numbers encouraged mainstream analysts to pay more attention to his tape and potential, which pushed him up public mocks into Day One territory. Rowe's length, athleticism and versatility make him valuable at this point of the draft, though I would prefer him in Round 3 since he has just one year of starter experience at cornerback. However, with talks that Tre' Boston may be moving to strong safety, Rowe is not locked in to developing as a cornerback. The Panthers can bring him into training camp and use him as a moveable piece, particularly in obvious passing downs where Boston can shift to strong safety and Roman Harper can go off the field. I do see him as a long-term fit at cornerback in the Panthers system because Carolina does not rely on leaving its cornerbacks on man-to-man islands, which helps make him worth the second round selection.

Round 3, Pick 89: LT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M University

Considered the top tackle option and a likely top five pick coming into the 2014 NCAA football season, Ogbuehi has seen his stock plummet due to inconsistent play and a torn ACL late in the season. The signing of Michael Oher and claiming of Jonathan Martin mean that the Panthers will not have to rush Ogbuehi along; this patience could allow him to realize his potential as a premier left tackle in the NFL. I think his floor is as an athletic right tackle who is an asset in both run- and pass-protection. Panthers fans might not be thrilled with such a tackle situation heading into 2015, but I have faith in the Panthers coaching staff that they can keep a healthier-than-ever Cam healthy this year.

Round 4, Pick 124: RB David Cobb, University of Minnesota

Cobb will not replace the dynamic outside run plays that DeAngelo Williams produced, but he is a strong, north-south runner who has the ability to develop into a strong starting running back. The Panthers like to use power runs and Cobb's leg drive (gained 54% of his 1,626 rushing yards after contact last season) and balance will make him an efficient runner in such a scheme. He demonstrates understanding of proper pass protection techniques and possesses the determination to grind for every yard available. Cobb is not a game-breaker, but his grittiness will make him a fan favorite.

Round 5, Pick 161: DE Za'Darious Smith, University of Kentucky

I mentioned Smith over a month ago as a potential Day Three target for the Panthers, and that is exactly where he shows up in this mock. Smith is a former basketball player but plays with more power than speed (even with a high 4.7 forty time) and could quickly be the best run-defending option across from Charles Johnson. A rotation of Smith and Ealy would reduce the need to rely on Wes Horton as well as the oft-suspended Frank Alexander. Smith also has the size to slide-inside if needed.

Round 5, Pick 169: LG Josue Matias, Florida State University

I selected Matias in the same slot in my Mock 3.0, and in each subsequent mock I have been tempted to re-slot him again and again. I feel that his talents would suit the Panthers well at left guard where none of Andrew Norwell, Amini Silatolu, or Edmund Kugbila can be seriously considered long-term fits on a team expecting to contend for the playoffs for the foreseeable future. Matias is a much-better pass protector than road grader thus far in his career, but I feel that would be beneficial for a Panthers team that should be primed to pass more than in the last few years with a fully recuperated Cam behind center. At this point in the draft, Matias would not be expected to usurp incumbent Andrew Norwell's starting spot immediately, but a healthy training camp competition along the offensive line could only prove to be positive, and if Matias becomes more of a run blocker, he could be special. 

Round 5, Pick 174: WR Titus Davis, Central Michigan University

For the second straight mock, I select the former Chippewa wide out at pick 174. Davis would bring attributes to the Panthers that no other receiver (outside of Jerricho Cotchery) could boast: solid route running and outstanding foot quickness. Despite being 6'1" with a 4.5 forty, I think that Davis could be better out of the slot than on the outside, especially as a compliment to Benjamin, Olsen, and Perriman. Davis will do the dirty work underneath and on third down and understands how to sit down against zone defenses. Davis could learn a lot from veteran Jerricho Cotchery before settling in as the #3 wide receiver and fourth weapon in the passing game.

Round 6, Pick 200: OLB Alani Fua, Brigham Young University

Fua is an athlete first and foremost. At 6'5" and 240 pounds with a 4.6 forty, Fua actually played a lot of man coverage over slot receivers at BYU, and the Panthers start two linebackers who excel in pass coverage. While Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez are no longer in the NFC South, Tampa Bay is developing Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Marques Colston runs routes from the slot, and no one would be surprised if Atlanta or New Orleans draft a playmaking tight end in the upcoming draft. Fua could also become an asset in select blitz packages, as he rushed the passer from a variety of slots and positions along BYU's front. In the sixth round, I swing for the fences with a versatile defensive piece that enhances line backer depth and special teams talent.

Round 7, Pick 242: DB Cam Thomas, Western Kentucky University

There are still a lot of question marks in Carolina's defensive backfield. Josh Norman has only had a single year of being an above average starter, Tre' Boston and Bene' Benwikere were rookies last year, Roman Harper will be 33 by the end of the season, and Colin Jones and Kurt Coleman are the only backups that were drafted (in the 6th and 7th rounds respectively). While Melvin White and Robert Lester have been okay after being signed as undrafted free agents, I think that competition is desperately needed, even after drafting Rowe in the second round. Thomas is stout in run support and excels at reading routes and quarterbacks rather than as a man-to-man corner. His 11 career interceptions demonstrate his nose for the ball. I think Thomas could develop as a cornerback or a free safety with some added bulk, much like Rowe. 

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Draft Study Guide: Panthers Mock 5.0

This mock is all about Cam and his future in Carolina. The more I think about this offseason and the future of the Carolina Panthers, I keep coming back to the fact that Cam is not signed past next season. All we ever hear about contract negotiations is that the front office should get something done eventually. This coming season could end up being make-or-break for Cam's future in a Panthers uniform. With that in mind, this mock draft focuses on surrounding him with weapons and protecting him.

Round 1, Pick 25: OT Andrus Peat, Stanford University

Peat is the final of the three offensive tackle prospects I feel that project to be above average left tackles in the NFL that I have mocked to the Panthers, and he may be the most viable the more I watch his tape and read about him. The Stanford product is a massive man and should be an immediate asset in the power running game that the Panthers employ. With improved technique and consistency, he can also become an asset in the pass game. I think that Peat would start out on the right side opposite of Michael Oher but could push for the left tackle spot in his second season.

Round 2, Pick 57: RB Duke Johnson, University of Miami (FL)

You want speed? Here is some speed for you. Johnson is a lightning playmaker and a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball. His slighter frame means he probably cannot carry the ball 20+ times per game in the NFL, but the Panthers started employing a running back committee before it became en vogue. Johnson can also offer some special teams value to make him an even more valuable asset. This former Hurricane would offer excitement for Panthers fans each time he steps on the field.

Round 3, Pick 89: CB Alex Carter, Stanford University

Carter has faced plenty of NFL caliber wide receivers in his three years in the PAC 12 and should be able to excel in zone coverage where he can keep plays in front of him in the NFL, given his below average long speed. Carter is strong in run support and at 6' and about 200 pounds, he has the size to play on the outside in the NFC South. The signing of Charles Tillman allows the Panthers to be more patient about defensive back help, but I think that Gettleman would pull the trigger for a player of Carter's caliber if he falls here.

Round 4, Pick 110*: DL Mario Edwards, Jr., Florida State University

Yes, I realize that the Panthers pick at 124, not 110 in the fourth round, but I am projecting the Panthers to trade up for a player they covet with Minnesota Vikings, a team known for draft day trades and amassing picks (*giving up picks 124 and 161 in exchange). In this case, that player is Mario Edwards, Jr. - a big hog molly that Gettleman would be keen to snatch at the right point in the draft. At 6'3" and 280 pounds, Edwards can be used as a run-stopping defensive end and shift inside on passing downs. He is not yet dynamic as a pass rusher and seems to go through the motions at times, but I think falling this far in the draft and coming into a locker room with the veteran presence that the Panthers possess will allow him to flourish.

Round 5, Pick 169: C Andy Gallik, Boston College

A center? Yes, a center. I am well aware the Panthers have one of the best centers in the NFL in Ryan Kalil. The four-time Pro Bowler is also 30 years old, and it could be time to at the very least get some solid injury insurance. Gallik could be relied on as a spot starter in case of injury immediately along the interior of the offensive line, but he should be focused on developing his pass protection skills as a center. Drafting Gallik would ensure that the Panthers are not in another "We'll stick with Byron Bell to replace Jordan Gross" scenario when Kalil eventually retires. Center - quarterback relationships are very important, so why not introduce Cam to Kalil's heir apparent earlier rather than later.

Round 5, Pick 174: WR Titus Davis, Central Michigan University

Do not run away from the lesser competition that Davis faced in college, Central Michigan is the same university that produced Antonio Brown. Knowing that, it makes Davis's career even more impressive as he finished his Chippewa career as the school's career leader in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Davis may be the best outside route runner in this draft not named Amari Cooper and could immediately step in and produce opposite of Kelvin Benjamin. He may not have the deep speed to stretch the top off of opposing defenses, but Davis will provide Cam with a consistent possession receiver to rely on, especially on third downs.

Round 6, Pick 200: WR DeAndre Carter, Sacramento State University

If ever there was an undersized prospect from a small school to bet on, it has to be DeAndre Carter. His younger brother passed away at the age of 17 in 2013, and Carter vowed that he would make it in the NFL to honor his brother's memory. His measurables have been compared to longtime Panther great Steve Smith Sr., and Carter certainly produced in the Big Sky Conference with 99 receptions for 1,321 yards and 17 touchdowns last season while playing mostly on the outside. At just 5'8" and 186 pounds, he will never overwhelm a cornerback with size, but he has quickness, speed, and sheer determination to get open and catch everything thrown his way. Carter is dynamic in a way that no other receiver on the Panthers roster is, and adding his effort and work ethic to the receiving corps would go a long ways to improving the overall talent level.

Round 7, Pick 242: DT Louis Trinca-Pasat

At 6'1" and just 290 pounds, Trinca-Pasat does not have the size to hold up as a full-time starter in the NFL. However, his effort and experience will make him a quality backup and rotational defensive tackle. Trinca-Pasat showed he could compliment talent well last year with his play next to fellow DT Carl Davis. While his physical attributes might limit his run-stopping abilities, Trinca-Pasat's relentlessness should not be overlooked as a valuable role player this late in the draft. 

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Grade Report: CB Charles "Peanut" Tillman

Has Gettleman signed a cornerback that can actually start for the Panthers? Charles Tillman is a two-time Pro Bowler after all. What will he bring to the Carolina defensive backfield? Let us examine.

The Player:

The Chicago Bears have had quite a few outstanding defensive players, so it means all that much more when I say that Charles Tillman will go down as one of the best Bears defenders of all time. The man affectionately called Peanut tries to force turnovers like a maniac, having come up with 36 interceptions and 42 forced fumbles since being drafted in 2003. 2012 was Tillman's last full season, having played only 10 games during the last two years due to arm injuries that ended each season early. However, he caused 13 turnovers (3 interceptions, 10 forced fumbles), or half as many as the entire Panthers defense -27. Tillman is 34, so the question remains as to whether he can still be a quality starter in the NFL. Regardless, Tillman will provide an excellent veteran presence for Josh Norman and Bene' Benwikere to learn from.

The Fit:

Tillman is 6'2" and excels in run support. He should come into OTAs as the starter opposite of Norman, shifting Benwikere inside to the slot position. Tillman's size should help him deal with the large receivers of the NFC South and the Panthers play-style should benefit his playmaking tendencies. If healthy, Tillman will solidify the Panthers's defensive backfield and make a top-ranked defense that much more difficult to deal with

The Contract:

1 year - $3,050,000; ??? signing bonus

The Grade and Analysis:

B; Panthers fans have rejoiced with the announcement of this signing, but there is a reason Tillman lasted this late into free agency. The 10 games played in two years is a definite concern, even if the injuries were to his arm. Optimism says that Tillman will help steady the pass defense and maintain the Panthers's elite defensive play of the last few years. The possibility remains that his arm just may not be able to hold up any more.

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Draft Study Guide: Panthers Mock 4.0

Just over three weeks until the draft, and I am getting giddy. If you have noticed that I change all of my picks each week, it is because I want to offer a variety of different perspectives as to who the Panthers might take. I am not saying one draft is absolutely more likely to happen than the last. Enjoy!

Round 1, Pick 25: OT D.J. Humphries, University of Florida

Humphries has arguably the highest potential of any offensive lineman prospect in the 2015 draft, boasting the upside of a franchise left tackle. Hailing from Mallard Creek High School, bringing home the Florida standout would be a move to ensure Cam Newton has his blindside protected for the rest of his career. He has good height and arm length, but his weight is a bit of a concern, especially for the power running game the Panthers utilize. Humphries is a superb athlete and demonstrated that athleticism in his matchup with Mizzou's Shane Ray. Humphries can be coached up on improving his hand placement and perhaps even being a knee-bender rather than a hip-bender to become an amazing left tackle for Carolina.

Round 2, Pick 57: DE Preston Smith, Mississippi State University

Yes, I realize that Dave Gettleman selected DE Kony Ealy in the second round last year, and I have high hopes for him. However, I doubt that he would hesitate to add another hog molly like Smith at this point of the draft. Smith has outstanding size and the ability to play the edge or shift inside. He is better rushing the passer from the interior but is an asset against the run when setting the edge. A rotation of Smith and Ealy opposite of Charles Johnson would make the Panthers defensive line that much more potent.

Round 3, Pick 89: CB D'Joun Smith, Florida Atlantic University

Smith played against lesser competition in Conference USA, but he has the athleticism and competitiveness to thrive in Carolina much like current starter Josh Norman. With a 4.45 40 at the combine, Smith answered questions about his speed on deeper routes. He also has above average ball skills and could develop into a ball hawk in a Panthers defense that focuses on rushing four and dropping seven to blanket receivers.  The Panthers have shown they are not afraid to select cornerbacks that did not face great competition, why not see if lightning strikes twice?

Round 4, Pick 124: WR Kenny Bell, University of Nebraska

Introducing my new favorite for "undervalued receiver that would fit the Panthers needs perfectly," 2014 First-team All-Big Ten receiver Kenny Bell. At 6'1" and having run three 40s between 4.38 and 4.42 seconds, Bell possesses the size and athleticism to succeed opposite of Kelvin Benjamin. He can easily compete for contested balls and steps up with such opportunities. In the highlight video here, you can see Bell's second gear as he runs away in the open field. His route running can use some work - nothing Ricky Proehl cannot help remedy. 

Round 5, Pick 161: FS Adrian Amos, Penn State University

There have been talks that Tre' Boston might benefit from shifting into the strong safety role; selecting Amos as a developmental FS prospect here in the fifth round would allow such a shift to occur. Amos has great speed and above average coverage skills, but he is lacking in run support ability. After playing in 49 games with 37 starts in his four years at Penn State, Amos has demonstrated excellent zone coverage as well as the ability to shift down to the slot, offering unique package possibilities early on in his career. Amos would be a selection for 2016 or perhaps even 2017 and beyond, but one with potential to be a plus starter at FS.

Round 5, Pick 169: RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn Univeristy

Not a game breaker by any means, Artis-Payne's key traits are his patience and toughness. He will likely never be more than a solid rotational back, but Artis-Payne should at the very least be good for ~10 carries a game that can help move drives along. He played just one year above junior college but racked up 1,600 yards in his lone year at Auburn. Running back is a funky position; you never know who might end up being a gem.

Round 5, Pick 174: OLB Alani Fua, Brigham Young University

Here is a name you probably were not expecting to read. Fua is 6'5" and 238 pounds and ran a 4.59 40 at his Pro Day. He does a lot of stuff alright but does not stand out at any one trait. Fua's best skill may be his ability in pass coverage, and he could develop into a sort of tight end counter. Some may cast him as a 3-4 OLB, but the Panthers run a strange base formation anyways. A weapon like Fua could only serve to make the defense more flexible and dynamic. 

Round 6, Pick 200: DT Darius Philon, University of Arkansas

At this point in the draft, I am all about swinging for the fences. Philon is exactly that: a surprise declaration from this underclassman could mean big things for a patient team. Having played just one year at Arkansas, Philon is still very raw and needs to add strength and size to his frame to become effective against the run. However, Philon possesses outstanding explosion off the snap and flashes serious upside as a 3-technique DT that can disrupt the pocket on passing downs.

Round 7, Pick 242: WR George Farmer, University of Southern California

Farmer blew his knee out and missed the 2013 season, but he still has excellent hands and the attitude to catch contested passes over the middle. Farmer's major weakness last season was his lack of explosiveness, but a 4.35 second 40 yard dash at USC's pro day suggests Farmer might have more in the tank as he becomes comfortable with his knee post surgery. Even with the selection of Bell earlier in the draft, the I doubt many Panthers fans would complain about more competition at the receiver position, especially when some speed might be injected.

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